Reports of the demise of the immigration bill appear to have been greatly exaggerated. Science has a couple of interesting pieces on provisions affecting scientists that I missed in my earlier look at the bill (perhaps they have been added in one of the many, many amendments?), and they are big ones.

From the first article:

• Foreign students earning an S&E masters or PhD from a US university would be granted permanent residency.

• 2/3 of the visas in the diversity lottery would be reserved for people with advanced S&E degrees (the lottery sets aside 50,000 visas for people from countries that do not send large numbers of immigrants to the US)

From the second article:

• Foreign students could remain in the US for 2 years after graduation while trying to find a job that will sponsor them for an H-1B.

• H-1Bs would be granted preferentially based on a point system that looks at such things as whether one has a graduate degree, whether one has employment in S&E, and proficiency in English.

So, in summary, as best I can tell:

• If you get an advanced S&E degree from the US, you get to stay.

• If you get an advanced S&E degree from anywhere else (or if you already have one), you can come work in the US and potentially stay.

• If you have an advanced S&E degree and are trying to get an H-1B visa, you are either exempt from numerical caps or go to the front of the line, depending on who you work for.

Wow. I think these provisions and the ones described earlier could have potentially huge implications for the global S&E workforce.

Permanent residency for those earning S&E degrees in the US is great - the current practice of bringing in really smart people, letting them gain valuable work experience in tech companies, and then sending them back home seems perverse. I haven't been able to find the provision in the bill (there are 350 amendments at this point, so who knows what's in there), so I'm unclear on when exactly people would qualify. Immediately upon graduation? Or some time later?

The goal of the bill is to make the US more competitive, presumably with China and India, but it's not clear that that will be the long-term effect. Here's why:

• If you are in the US, the value of your S&E advanced degree has probably dropped because you will be competing with a lot more people for jobs. I say "probably" because the new entrants will also help create a lot of new opportunities as well. One thing to consider, though: tech companies and the ecosystem that surrounds them employ a lot more people with advanced degrees than just scientists. There are lots of MBAs and JDs running around the tech sector, and nobody is trying to import more of them. Even if the new opportunities for S&Es cancels out some (or all) of the downside of increased competition for jobs, the net effect is likely that the value of an S&E degree relative to an MBA or a JD has fallen. And that means that smart US students will gravitate away from science toward other alternatives.

• If you are in China or India, the value of an S&E degree just went up because it's a ticket to the US. That means that students will be even more likely to pursue degrees in these subjects. Some fraction of these S&Es will stay in country, and some fraction of those who come to the US on H-1Bs will return. As James Fallows describes in The Atlantic this month, there are some amazing opportunities for entrepreneurs in China.

So, while the US will get a lot of talent from the bill, China and India stand to benefit considerably as well. And it's not at all clear what the balance will be. Regardless, the world stands to gain a whole lot more scientists and engineers.