Remember all those imminent faculty retirements?

Back in the late 1980's, people were predicting that all sorts of scientists would be needed to fill the shoes of the big cohort of scientists and engineers hired in Sputnik-fueled buildup of the late 1960's. (A quick Google search shows the meme to be alive and well) Researchers tend not to retire early - why give up a cushy tenured faculty gig? - but these folks are now in their 70's, so sooner or later it's going to happen. So lots of faculty positions should be opening up, right?

Not so fast. I came across these projections of the number of 18-year-olds in the US (based on census data) in economist Andrew Samwick's blog. The key point: the number of 18-year-olds peaked this year. We're in for a substantial decline in the 18-year-old population over the next 8 years or so, and we won't get back to 2008 levels again until 2025.

College enrollment levels are driven at least in part by the number of 18 year olds in the population. So unless enrollment rates increase substantially in the near future (and they could) or educational immigration increases, colleges may not need to do any significant new hiring to replace those retiring faculty members, at least for another decade or two.

Oops.

On the plus side, lower demand for scientists from the academic sector should help allay the concerns expressed by various government research labs about future hiring.