Geoff,

Once again, another trenchant posting - thank you Geoff!

If we take your prediction at face value - namely that there will be a pulse of fresh domestic Life Sciences PhDs emerging right when the job market is the worst - we have to ask the question: is there anything to be done?

When this happened in the early 90's in the Physical Sciences, the establishment went through the common stages of dealing with uncomfortable news:

1. Denial: "You can't tell me the job market is bad - why, my latest PhD student got a great post-doc!"
2. Anger: "The people who are complaining about the job market are just whiners who aren't cut out for a career in science!"
3. Bargaining: "If I tell my grad students up front that the job market is tough - then they will make an informed decision."
4. Depression: "I can't believe my latest grad student took a job with McKinsey! What does that say about her dedication to science - or my ability to inspire her?"
5. Acceptance --

Well, that last one I am not sure we really got to in the mid 1990's, because by the time the "system" had acknowledged that there was a problem, the labor market was already in recovery. There were some systemic changes, such as a better administration of post-doctoral appointments, and some greater awareness of the need for career development for grad students and post-docs. But, in general, professors and their departments are still doing the same-old same-old today.

Students, however, HAVE made a change. I base this on my discussions with grad students and post-docs that attend my workshops on career development. In the mid-90's, the entire subject of "non-traditional" careers was somewhat taboo. Grad students showed up to my workshop, lurked in the back of the auditorium, and got skittish if anyone that looked like a faculty member was in the audience.

Today, students I have met are most more, well... Worldly. Many know that there are multiple professional paths post-PhD (though most are anxious about trying to figure out what they are), many have heard of people who have taken non-academic pathways, and the entire subject is no longer verboten. The faculty remain, as far as I can tell, totally absent in this discussion. They never show up at my career workshops. And, they mostly are focused on keeping things going for themselves professionally (which, as you have pointed out Geoff, is getting really hard to do in the life sciences!).

I think another aspect to the economic analysis you raise above (and Freeman did before) is the fact that grad students are not just focused on the monetary economics of the situation, but also (perhaps more so) on the quality of life issue. Writing 10 grant applications for every one that is funded is just NO FUN! Just as we saw in the 1990's, the students in the life sciences today will likely be thirsting for more information about what they can do besides be a miserable professor like their advisor.

So - back to my question: what can be done.

First - to the grad students and post-docs out there today: don't expect that the system is going to help you. It didn't help me or any of my brethren in the early '90's when we got our PhDs! YOU are in charge of your career at this point and nobody cares more than YOU about what happens next. Denial, Anger, Bargaining etc. is going on among grad students and post-docs right now I am sure. YOU need to get to Acceptance as soon as you can.

So - what can you DO about it?

1. Get your department or university to organize non-traditional career activities for grad students. You will find the administration much more receptive today than we did in 1995.
2. Spend a small but non-zero portion of your work week solely focused on your career path. One professional I spoke to had a rule she followed: the 80:10:10 rule. I talk about it in a recent Opportunities column/12101).
3. Talk to people: the best way psychologists have found for people to speed themselves through the difficult process of grieving is by getting them to TALK to one another. Isolation will only prolong your frustration.

I'd be interested in everyone else's thoughts about what can be done to mitigate the looming famine...