To address this comment: "Why are these numbers going down at all? NRSA fellowships are one of NIH's premier forms of support for the training of new researchers. Postdocs are incredibly cheap, too -- maybe 10% of the cost of an R01, tops, so it's not like a lot of money is saved by cutting them."

See the discussion below:

From my previously posted comment, Congress mandated in a 1974 law that the NRC/NAS oversea the administration of the NIH training programs, including the NRSA program.

Again, here is the report for the year 2000:

"Addressing the Nation's Changing Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists (2000)" http://grants.nih.gov/training/nas_report/index.htm

To possibly explain the declining numbers of new NRSA postdoc awards, look at this recommendation by the committee:

In the excutive summary, the NRC/NAS committee recommends:

http://grants.nih.gov/training/nasreport/ExecSummary.pdf

....As described in Chapter 2, the committee found that the number of new Ph.D.s awarded annually in the basic biomedical sciences is well above that needed to keep pace with growth in the U.S. economy and to replace those leaving the workforce as a result of retirement and death. Moreover, many recent entrants to the biomedical workforce are working in postdoctoral or other temporary positions. From its review of these and other trends in the education and employment of basic biomedical scientists, the committee concluded that research training and overall Ph.D. production in these fields should not be increased.

NIH's response to the "Addressing the Nation's Changing Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists (2000)" report: Release Date: March 22, 2001

http://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/notice-files/NOT-OD-01-027.html

At the end of this report: . . SUMMARY OF PLANS TO IMPLEMENT THE RECOMMENDATIONS IN THE NAS REPORT . . The NIH supports higher stipends for NRSA recipients and therefore announces tentative targets of $25,000 for graduate and $45,000 for entry-level postdoctoral stipends. Future budget requests will incorporate 10 to 12 percent stipend increases until these targets are reached. After attainment of these targets, the real value of stipends will be maintained with annual cost-of-living adjustments.

However, as you can see from these links, the 10 to 12 percent increases were not implemented. But, you should see some correlation between the slowdown of the growth of the NRSA postdoc program and the tiny increase in the stipend awards over the years.

2006

Postdoctoral Years of Experience: 0 $36,996

http://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/notice-files/NOT-OD-06-026.html

2005

Postdoctoral Years of Experience: 0 $ 35,568

http://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/notice-files/NOT-OD-05-032.html

2001 Postdoctoral Years of Experience 0 $28,260

http://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/notice-files/NOT-OD-01-011.html

One can still ask, to what extent the NIH even abides by the recommendations made the NRC/NAS committee?

Bob