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Hi JS-
The system does indeed have some structural tendencies to boom-and-bust cycles. I doubt we will see any further NIH expansion for quite some time, though. $14B/year is a lot of new money.
Instead, I think we will see an NSF doubling. There is already a lot of talk about doing so, it involves a lot less money, and I think Bush is behind it. I'm hoping that the NSF will learn from the NIH's experience and will take steps to minimize their own doubling's side effects.
Geoff